Sudden, powerful bursts of extreme rainfall are wreaking havoc across mountainous areas of South Asia, unleashing catastrophic floods, mudslides, and landslides that have wiped out entire neighborhoods and left thriving communities buried under mud and rubble.
Pakistan Hit Hard: Hundreds Dead in 48 Hours
In northwest Pakistan, torrential downpours triggered violent floods that tore through rural villages, killing at least 321 people within two days, local authorities confirmed on Saturday.
In Buner district of Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, more than ten villages were completely destroyed by flash floods. Officials fear dozens of residents remain trapped under layers of thick mud, debris, and boulders.
India and Kashmir Also Devastated
Across the border in India-administered Kashmir, a wall of water and mud swept through the Himalayan town of Chashoti on Friday, killing at least 60 people and leaving more than 200 missing, according to Reuters. Earlier this month, another deluge in Uttarakhand state left at least four people dead.
Mourners in Pakistan-administered Kashmir were seen carrying the bodies of flood victims on August 15, highlighting the widespread tragedy gripping the region.
The Science Behind Cloudbursts
Authorities in both countries link much of the disaster to sudden, violent downpours known as cloudbursts. These highly localized rain events unleash massive amounts of water within a short period, often resulting in deadly floods and landslides.
Cloudbursts occur most often in mountainous regions during monsoon season when warm, moisture-laden air rises sharply against steep terrain, rapidly condenses, and bursts into torrents of rain.
The India Meteorological Department defines a cloudburst as rainfall exceeding 100 mm (4 inches) per hour.
According to climate scientist Roxy Mathew Koll of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, regions like the Himalayas, Karakoram, and Hindu Kush are particularly vulnerable due to their steep slopes, fragile terrain, and valleys that funnel storm runoff into destructive torrents.
Residents Describe Earthquake-Like Floods
In Salarzai, Pakistan, locals compared the devastating force of mudflows and falling boulders to the ground-shaking intensity of an earthquake.
Why Cloudbursts Are So Dangerous
Experts highlight multiple factors:
- Hard to predict: Cloudbursts are too small-scale and rapid to forecast accurately.
- Sparse data: Limited monitoring systems hinder early warnings.
- Weak infrastructure: Poor communication, fragile housing, and lack of flood defenses worsen the impact.
- Deforestation & unplanned development: Loss of forests and construction in hazard zones increase landslide and flood risks.
Islamabad-based climate expert Ali Tauqeer Sheikh stressed that governance gaps and weak early-warning mechanisms amplify the destruction.
Climate Change Making Rainfall More Extreme
Scientists agree that climate change is intensifying such weather events.
- Warmer air holds more moisture, fueling heavier rainfall.
- Warming oceans in the Indian Ocean and Arabian Sea are feeding monsoon systems with excess moisture.
- Heatwaves preceding monsoon rains dry out soils, making flash floods more destructive.
- Glacial melt in the Himalayas and Karakoram is creating unstable terrain and lakes, compounding risks of floods and landslides.
Koll noted that even though glacial melt does not cause cloudbursts directly, it significantly worsens their aftermath.
Pakistan Among the Most Vulnerable
Although Pakistan produces less than 1% of global greenhouse gases, it ranks among the world’s most climate-vulnerable nations.
The 2022 monsoon season remains the country’s worst in recent memory, with nearly 2,000 deaths and damages of over $40 billion. Since then, deadly flooding has hit Pakistan every year, with rainfall becoming more erratic and extreme.
Sheikh explained that while overall average rainfall may have declined, the frequency of intense downpours has increased. This means drought and floods now often strike within the same monsoon season, further destabilizing food and water security.
Regional Impacts and Political Tensions
The Himalayan, Karakoram, and Hindu Kush ranges span eight countries, meaning disasters in one often spill over into neighboring regions. Sheikh called for regional cooperation, warning that fragmented responses hinder resilience.
However, political tensions complicate collaboration. In May, India suspended the Indus Water Treaty with Pakistan amid heightened conflict over Kashmir. Sheikh warned that without renewed agreements, climate-induced water challenges could escalate further.
Building Resilience: What Needs to Be Done
Experts stress urgent action:
- Avoid building in hazard-prone flood zones
- Enforce climate-resilient construction and infrastructure
- Strengthen early-warning systems and communication channels
- Preserve forests to reduce landslide and flood risk
Koll emphasized that at just 1.2°C of warming, the region is already suffering catastrophic floods, with the world currently on track for 3°C of warming by the century’s end. Each fraction of a degree, scientists warn, will bring deadlier outcomes.
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